CBA with 4 reasons why they think the AUD won't decline in the face of US rate rises:

  1. Structural improvement in Australia's current-account deficit (to 0.6% of GDP vs 4-5% of GDP in 2001 period)
  2. Asian and global GDP growth remains firm, and Asia is running a current-account surplus (in 2001 the region had a large current-account deficit, and was recovering from 1997-98 Asian financial crisis)
  3. Australia's terms of trade is 62% higher than 2001
  4. U.S. dollar is unlikely to see strength vs majors, unlike 2001 (absent delivery of US company tax cuts, USD is unlikely to appreciate much)

It would be surprising if AUD/USD fell below its December 2016 level of 0.7160 simply because there was a negative Australia-U.S. rate differential

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Note:

The Australia-U.S. 2 year interest rate differential was negative in 1997, AUD/USD fell nearly 25% by end 1998

And further (18 months later) to under 0.48 by April 2001

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via Bloomberg