In recent weeks, I laid out the case for a bottoming in cocoa prices and a related bottoming in the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return Exp 24 June 2038 (NYSE:NIB). Specifically see “Trading Cocoa: A Declining Price Takes Its Toll But Brings Opportunity” and “A Cut In Ghana’s Cocoa Forecast May Signal A Bottom For Prices.” NIB finally printed the technical event I wanted to see to start confirmation of a bottom: a close above the downtrending 50-day moving average (DMA).
The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) closed above its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since August, 2016.
Trading volume is the most encouraging component of this breakout. NIB’s trading volume has surged in 2017, especially in the last two months. The bulk of that trading volume has occurred on up days. The ingredients for a bottom through “celebrating with buyers” have arrived.
The rules are relatively straightforward for new entrants to this trade. First, buy on a higher close. Such a move should confirm the 50DMA breakout. Second, stop out if NIB closes below today’s low which would invalidate the breakout. More aggressive traders can wait to stop out below the most recent low. The first upside target is around $32 which represents a test of downtrending 200DMA resistance and the large gap-down and breakdown from November, 2016.
Full disclosure: long NIB