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British pound has best week since 2009

Marianna Aragao
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The pound posted its best week since 2009 as a flurry of news offered relief for the currency.

Sterling climbed this week on speculation a High Court ruling will delay or soften the terms of the nation's exit from the European Union and it received a further boost when the Bank of England said it's no longer expecting to cut interest rates again this year. The BOE also raised its forecasts for both consumer-price increases and growth. Options pricing indicates that traders have become less bearish on the pound in the short term.

Data that beat analyst forecasts helped lend support to the pound. A report on Thursday showed the UK services industry expanded for a third month in October, emphasising the economy's resilience since the June 23 Brexit vote. Still, sterling's rally this week barely dented its 16 per cent slide since the referendum.

The UK currency's six-day winning streak, its longest since March, pushed its weekly gain to 3 per cent, the biggest since October 2009. Jason Alden

Based on economic data, "sterling is more likely to rise than fall," Constantin Bolz, a Zurich-based foreign-exchange strategist at UBS Group's wealth-management unit, wrote in a note to clients dated November 3. "Given stronger growth and higher inflation, the case for further easing would be difficult to justify."

The pound rose 0.7 per cent to $US1.2545 as of 3.50pm on Friday in London, and earlier reached $US1.2548, the highest since October 7. The UK currency's six-day winning streak, its longest since March, pushed its weekly gain to 3 per cent, the biggest since October 2009. Sterling strengthened for a third day versus the euro, gaining 0.6 per cent to 88.60 pence.

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Stronger services PMI data are "another sign that the economy is not suffering as much as previously feared", UBS's Bolz said. "We believe that the economy, as well as Bank of England monetary policy, do not justify current sterling weakness." Politics remains "the most volatile component in the equation," he said.

A panel of judges ruled on Thursday that the government needs parliament's approval to start negotiations to exit the EU. The decision came before the BOE said its nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates and the asset-purchase target unchanged, while indicating that accelerating inflation may even warrant tightening policy at some point.

One-month options show that the premium for puts, which grant the right to sell the pound versus the dollar, over calls, which confer the right to buy, fell for an eighth day, according to 25-delta risk-reversals data compiled by Bloomberg. The difference was 0.46 percentage point Friday, the lowest since September 14.

"We have $US1.26 in the near term as the place that markets will take a rest," Francesco Garzarelli, London-based co-head of global macro and markets research at Goldman Sachs, said, referring to sterling's level versus the dollar. "Because there's a lot of uncertainty, general elections may be coming up in 2017, the market will want to see that unfolding before really taking a view."

Bloomberg

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