Today's Pound to Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast / FX Predictions
- The Pound to Euro exchange rate today: +0.39 per cent higher at 1 GBP = 1.17850 EUR.
- The Pound to Dollar exchange rate today: +036 pct higher at 1 GBP = 1.31375 USD.
- The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate: +0.35pct higher at 1 GBP = 1.74593 AUD.
- The Euro to Pound exchange rate today: -0.38 pct lower at 0.84854.
The GBPUSD Could Retest 2016 Lows if the Fed Hikes Rates This Coming September
The prospects of a US Fed rate hike in December have risen sharply, following statements by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Friday.
Though, initially, the pound rose sharply following the release of Yellen’s comments, it later gave up all the gains and closed near the lows of the day, when Fischer said that the Fed can raise rates as early as September and follow it up with another in December if the data remains supportive.
Nonetheless, a slew of strong economic data in the UK has prevented the Sterling from weakening below the multi-decade lows.
"UK data continues to stifle the scaremongers," said Alex Lydall, senior sales trader at Foenix Partners, a firm which offers hedging solutions to British companies, reports Reuters.
"The UK entered the post-referendum period with good momentum," said Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte. "Household spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy and is growing at the fastest rate in eight years. We see few signs that Brexit has derailed the consumer recovery," reports the International Business Times.
Latest Pound / Euro / US Dollar Exchange Rates
The GBP/USD pair is trading in a range, with support at the 1.2789 level. Every subsequent rise is getting sold into forming a sequence of lower highs, as shown by the downtrend line in the chart.
If the pair does not manage to break above the downtrend line, it will lead to a descending triangle formation, which will be confirmed if the pair breaks down below the lows. The pattern target on a breakdown from this bearish pattern is lower at 1.20 levels.
However, if the pair manages to break above the downtrend line, it is likely to find resistance at 1.3528 levels, as shown in the chart above. As long as the downtrend line holds, traders should trade with a negative bias.
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Forecast
Can the GBPEUR avoid falling to the 1.13 levels?
A string of strong data this week has helped the pound recover its losses against the Euro. However, the continuation of the pullback will depend on the continued strength of the data in the future. Few analysts believe that the data doesn’t show the impact of the Brexit as it is too new and recent, following the referendum.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at the researcher IHS Markit, attributes the resilience of the UK economy to the policy action by the Bank of England and the proposed action of the Treasury, reports The Week.
The Eurozone data also remains strong, showing limited impact of the Brexit.
“The ECB will likely be pretty pleased with the July credit data, and it modestly dilutes the case for further stimulus” at the Sept. 8 policy meeting, said IHS Markit economist Howard Archer in a research note, reports The Wall Street Journal.
The pair continues to remain in a downtrend. It is currently facing resistance from the 20 day exponential moving average. If this level is crossed, the pair is likely to touch the 50 day EMA, which should offer some resistance.
If the 50 day EMA is crossed, the pair is likely to face resistance from the 1.21 levels.
Above the 50 day EMA, the pair is likely to get range bound. Until then, the pair remains in a downtrend.
On a breakdown from the recent lows of 1.1466, the pair can slide to 1.1350 levels, which should offer strong support.
Long-Term Currency Forecast From Lloyds
"Long term, we believe we are in the last phase of the bear trend that started back in 2007 at 2.1160."
"While a multi-month bottoming process is expected, we are watching current price action around the key levels above to suggest if 1.2800 was actually a major low or not."
The pound conversion rate (against euro) is quoted at 1.168 EUR/GBP.
At time of writing the pound to us dollar exchange rate is quoted at 1.246.
The pound conversion rate (against indian rupee) is quoted at 103.964 INR/GBP.
The pound conversion rate (against south african rand) is quoted at 23.864 ZAR/GBP.
The live inter-bank GBP-CAD spot rate is quoted as 1.713 today.