Caution Call on Consumer Staples ETFs

Up nearly 5.2% this year, the Consumer Staples Select SPDR (NYSEArca: XLP ) is one of this year’s best-performing sector exchange traded funds.

Additionally, the Guggenheim S&P Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF (RHS) and First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX Fund (FXG) have been standout performers.

But as the staples sector and the corresponding ETFs have soared in response to investors’ demand for lower beta, less risky assets, plenty of naysayers have continually said the sector is poised for a pullback.

Related: 13 Tasty Consumer Staples ETFs to Feast On

Staples ETFs such as XLP, the largest consumer staples ETF on the market, and rivals, including the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) , could be investor favorites if polls show a highly competitive presidential election as the summer months drag along.

Since April 30, 1945, the S&P 500 rose in price an average 1.4% from May through October, compared to an average 6.8% from November through April, writes Todd Rosenbluth, S&P Global Market Intelligence Director of ETF Research, in a research note.

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Predictably, one of the criticism of the staples sector is that the group looks pricey.

“By many valuation metrics, however, consumer staples are quite overvalued. As of May 23, 2016, the Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF had a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 compared to 18 for the S&P 500. Its P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.5 tops the S&P 500’s 1.8,” reports Investopedia.

Defensive sectors often trade at premium valuations relative to the broader market and that is certainly the case at the moment with the consumer staples and utilities groups.

However, that does not mean investors should flee richly valued groups such as consumer staples and utilities. In fact, the case for these higher-yielding sectors could be getting a boost as bond markets are pricing in diminishing chances of the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates later this month while also reducing the odds of a July rate hike.

Related: Paying For Protection

Of XLP’s “top five holdings, all of them had P/E ratios greater than 21 as of May 23, 2016. In 2010, most of the companies had P/E ratios between 13 and 16. Investors are essentially paying 50% more for earnings today than they were in 2010 for these companies,” according to Investopedia.

For more information on the consumer staples sector, visit our consumer staples category.

Consumer Staples Select SPDR

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The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Lydon serves as an independent trustee of certain mutual funds and ETFs that are managed by Guggenheim Investments; however, any opinions or forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Lydon and not those of Guggenheim Funds, Guggenheim Investments, Guggenheim Specialized Products, LLC or any of their affiliates. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.

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