Queensland: up to 10 LNP seats could change hands in federal election

Queensland is always a key state in federal elections – it’s a large state, with a large number of marginal seats. Recent polls suggest six to 10 Coalition seats could be up for grabs in the state. In the Senate, Glenn Lazarus will be looking to win re-election outside the Palmer United umbrella, while the Liberal National party try to prevent Labor and the Greens expanding their Senate representation.

The LNP polled 57% of the two-party-preferred vote in Queensland in 2013. Recent polls suggest a large swing away from the Coalition. The latest Crikey polling average gives the LNP 52.3% after preferences. The latest Newspoll state breakdown has the LNP on 51%. This suggests a swing of about 4-6% from the LNP to Labor.

Map: Queensland marginal seats

The LNP holds six seats in Queensland on margins of less than 6%, and four more on margins of 6-7%. Winning those 10 seats would bring Labor halfway to government.

Most of these seats are on the outer fringe of Brisbane. The LNP would be most concerned about Petrie (0.5%), Bonner (3.7%) and Forde (4.4%), which all lie on the outer edge of the city. The LNP will also have a fight on its hands to retain the inner-city seat of Brisbane (4.3%), where sitting MP Teresa Gambaro is retiring.

In regional Queensland, the LNP will be defending Rockhampton-based Capricornia (0.8%) and Leichhardt (5.7%), which covers Cape York and Cairns.

If there is a large swing to Labor in Queensland, Dickson and Longman (both on the northern fringe of Brisbane), Townsville-based Herbert and Gladstone-based Flynn would also be vulnerable. Dickson is held by immigration minister Peter Dutton, the most prominent minister in a vulnerable seat.

The LNP has its eye on Fairfax, which was considered a safe LNP seat before Clive Palmer won it in 2013. A January poll of the electorate had Palmer’s primary vote collapsing to 2%, and it’s unclear whether he will even run.

A number of minor parties are competing for the last one or two Queensland seats in the Senate. Queensland is currently represented by six LNP senators, four Labor, Greens deputy co-leader Larissa Waters and Lazarus, formerly of PUP.

In a double dissolution, the quota for a Senate seat will be roughly 7.7% of the vote. With optional preferential voting allowing votes to exhaust, it is conceivable that candidates could be elected to the final seat on a primary vote as low as 3-4%.

Current polling suggests the LNP is on track to retain all its seats – though if its support continues to fall the sixth could be in danger – with Labor likely to retain its four seats, and the Greens one.

Any Senate polling should be taken with a grain of salt, but they are all we have to judge how minor parties are performing.

The only Queensland Senate poll we’ve seen came from Reachtel in March, commissioned by the Australia Institute. That put the Greens on 10.4%, the Glenn Lazarus Team on 3%, Palmer United party on 2.9% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 3.4%.

There have been rumours Palmer may abandon his electorate to run for the Senate, where polls suggest he would have a much better chance of winning.

If the Reachtel numbers were roughly accurate, the last seat would be a close contest between Lazarus, Palmer (or another PUP candidate), Greens candidate Andrew Bartlett and the Nick Xenophon Team candidate, possibly alongside the sixth Liberal National candidate or the fifth Labor candidate.

Who wins the last two Queensland seats will help decide whether the balance of power in the Senate will be held by the Nick Xenophon Team, the Greens or by another group of assorted crossbenchers, as in the current Senate.