New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rates Vulnerable To RBNZ Rate Cut In June

Underwhelming inflation data sees the New Zealand Dollar exchange rates continue to soften across the board as talk of an RBNZ interest rate cut increases.

New Zealand dollar to pound sterling exchange rate forecast

Market worries have continued to drive the NZD exchange rates lower against rivals, particularly as Chinese data failed to inspire greater risk appetite. Where next for the pound to New Zealand dollar conversion?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) exchange rates advanced further against a number of the majors ahead of the latest Manufacturing PMI, benefiting from decreasing bets of imminent Fed action.

Even so the risk-sensitive NZD remains vulnerable to wider shifts in market sentiment, particularly if weaker domestic data increases the odds of another interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

According to Citibank analysts, "Despite a possible rate cut in Jun, NZD’s interest rate is the highest in G10. Yield advantage may continue to support the NZ dollar."

Latest research shows the New Zealand dollar exchange rates may be shifted further in the future by the release of a pair of NX data announcements.

These will first consist of the financial stability report, which is due tonight. Following on from this early tomorrow will be a press conference conducted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Wednesday’s New Zealand Manufacturing PMI could offer a rallying point for the NZ Dollar exchange rates (NZD) if the sector continues to demonstrate strong expansion.

However, should the domestic economy show further signs of slowness then markets are likely to punish the NZD/GBP exchange rate further.

Demand for commodity-correlated currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar declined sharply following the latest raft of Chinese trade data, as both imports and exports fell short of expectations in April.

Markets remain cautious of the possibility of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) opting to cut interest rates further at its June policy meeting, meanwhile, as global slowdown concerns continue to weigh on market sentiment.

foreign exchange rates

Although the odds of the Federal Reserve opting to raise interest rates again in the near future dipped further in response to the April Non-Farm Payrolls report this was not enough to prevent the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZD/USD) exchange rate from extending its downtrend.

Latest New Zealand/Australian Dollar Exchange Rates

On Thursday the Pound to British Pound exchange rate (GBP/GBP) converts at 1

Today finds the pound to pound spot exchange rate priced at 1.

FX markets see the pound vs us dollar exchange rate converting at 1.247.

The pound conversion rate (against australian dollar) is quoted at 1.916 AUD/GBP.

Please note: the FX rates above, updated 25th Apr 2024, will have a commission applied by your typical high street bank. Currency brokers specialise in these type of foreign currency transactions and can save you up to 5% on international payments compared to the banks.

Other Currency Exchange News

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Exchange Rates Stay Low

While the latest Chinese Consumer Price Index indicated that inflationary pressure had held steady on the year this was not enough to prompt an upturn for the New Zealand Dollar on Tuesday.

The outlook of the New Zealand economy failed to gain any particular support from the ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge, in spite of the index demonstrating a modest uptick of 0.1%.

This was due to the persistently unimpressive underlying picture, as ANZ Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie noted:

‘Price rises were largely confined to the housing group, with prices down 0.1% for the Underlying Ex-housing Gauge, and the 3-month increase from this measure down to 0.1%, the lowest increase so far this year. While we can see signs of demand-pull inflation in the likes of construction and housing, the inflation picture remains dormant overall. In that environment the OCR looks headed lower still.’
pound sterling to new zealand dollar exchange rate chart

Increased Business Support for ‘Brexit’ Fails to Dent GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Rally

Confidence in Pound Sterling (GBP) remained generally muted at the start of the week, as concerns over the upcoming EU membership referendum continue to loom over the UK economy.

April’s BRC Like-For-Like Sales survey revealed that prices had unexpectedly contracted on the year, reiterating the negative impact that recent market volatility has had on domestic sentiment and consumer confidence.

While the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) also indicated that the gap had narrowed amongst members between support for the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps, however, this was not enough to dent the bullish run of the Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate on Tuesday morning.

Safe-Haven Demand Shores up US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates

A stronger-than-expected US Labour Market Conditions Index helped to shore up support for the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as markets began to recover from the downside surprise of the April payroll report.

With forecasts suggesting an improvement in the Wholesale Inventories figure for March and safe-haven demand on the rise the US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar (USD/NZD) exchange rate gained further ground.

As commentary from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the hopes of a near-term interest rate hike from the Fed alive the ‘Greenback’ could stand to extend its recovery against rivals.

The NZD is due for limited quantities of medium-impact data each night before the weekend

Tonight will bring the announcement of the Business NZ performance of manufacturing index for April, as well as the food prices outcome for the same month.

Following on from this tomorrow night will be the outcome of retail sales excluding inflation in the first quarter.

Colin Lawrence

Contributing Analyst