After securing all six consecutive 'best closes' last week, the British pound to euro rate (GBP/EUR) outlook improved after the latest EU referendum polls showed Bremain in the lead. We examine the latest euro-related fx forecasts targeting the sterling and the US dollar in the short, medium and long-term forex outlooks.
Foreign exchange markets witnessed a strong finish for sterling last week, with the British pound to euro exchange rate reaching a four-week best price level as trading concluded. See today's update below.
The GBP/EUR conversion rate peaked on Friday at 1.28, sparking fresh hopes that this recent strength could see the pair target 1.29 next week.
The pound sterling to dollar exchange rate also performed well as the British currency ended the week's trading as a top G-10 performer.
Will British politics continue to drive Pound Sterling exchange rates this week? Or will domestic data have a greater impact?
UK first quarter Gross Domestic Product is certainly predicted to cause GBP directional movement in the coming 5-day period.
Eurozone Consumer Prices forecast to dominate euro trader focus this week.
Other Pound Sterling / Currency Exchange News
Latest Pound/Euro Exchange Rates
On Friday the Pound to British Pound exchange rate (GBP/GBP) converts at 1
The pound conversion rate (against pound) is quoted at 1 GBP/GBP.
The live inter-bank GBP-USD spot rate is quoted as 1.237 today.
The GBP to CHF exchange rate converts at 1.126 today.
NB: the forex rates mentioned above, revised as of 19th Apr 2024, are inter-bank prices that will require a margin from your bank. Foreign exchange brokers can save up to 5% on international payments in comparison to the banks.
Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates Could See Movement on This Week's UK GDP
Last week the British pound exchange rates rallied versus the majority of its currency peers after EU referendum opinion polls suggested a lead to the ‘Remain’ campaign.
The question is, will the Sterling rally continue or will domestic data have a greater impact?
One of the most likely British ecostats to cause Sterling changes is first-quarter Gross Domestic Product.
Other British data publications to look out for are; Loans for House Purchase, Nationwide House Prices, GfK Consumer Confidence, Net Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates are Forecast Volatility in Response to German and Eurozone Inflation Data
Last week the Euro cooled versus most of its currency rivals in response to poor data and concerns that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced into easing policy further later in 2016.
With the ECB rate decision out of the way, however, there is a chance that the Euro will climb on consolidative trading given that President Mario Draghi failed to jawbone as had been widely expected.
In terms of domestic data this week, German and Eurozone inflation data will be likely to have the greatest impact on Euro exchange rates.
German labour market data may also be impactful.
Leading Financial Institutions and Their GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Forecasts
Scotiabank noted sterling's strong finish to the week and the pound to euro / dollar gains:
"Sterling is ending the week as the top G-10 performer overall."
"The pound has ignored weak UK fundamental data (unemployment and retail sales) to post steady gains against the EUR and pressure the upper end of the recent consolidation range against the USD."
"A forecast released Thursday indicated a 20% risk of a vote to leave the EU, down from 24% in the previous week. Easing concerns around the UK referendum outcome are helping lift the GBP."
Lloyds' analysts highlight the near-term euro to pound exchange rate outlook in their most recent briefing to clients:
"We are starting to further develop trending tendencies, since topping out in the key 0.81-0.82 resistance region."
"We have broken down through important support in the 0.7950-0.7875 region and near term rebounds are limited. 0.7895-0.7930 is intra-day resistance in this regard, with next support 0.7830/25 and then 0.7755/45 ahead of the previous range lows from February/March in the 0.7665/0.7650 region."
"Medium term, the trend from the 0.6935 lows set in July 2015 remains intact. A decline through daily trend support at 0.7925-0.7880 would add increasing weight to confirming a significant top is developing."
"Only a clear breach of the 0.82 region would suggest that isn’t the case with little meaningful resistance above till 0.84 and then 0.87."
Key GBP and EUR Related Economic Events This Week
This week's euro-focused events in include the German Ifo Business Climate (source), CBI Industrial Order Expectations, Belgian NBB Business Climate (source), German Import Prices (source), GfK German Consumer Climate (source), M3 Money Supply (source), Private Loans, German Prelim CPI, Spanish Flash CPI (source), Spanish Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change (source), Italian 10-y Bond Auction, French Prelim GDP (source), German Retail Sales, French Consumer Spending, French Prelim CPI, Spanish Flash GDP, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (source) and the Euro zone Unemployment Rate.
This week's sterling-related events include the CBI Industrial Order Expectations (source), BBA Mortgage Approvals (source), UK Prelim GDP (source), Index of Services 3m/3m, CBI Realized Sales, Net Lending to Individuals (source), M4 Money Supply and the UK Mortgage Approvals.
Euro Rate Today: GBP/EUR Holds Firm Despite German Releases
Despite the German IFO Business Sentiment Survey demonstrating an unexpected decline in domestic confidence the GBP to EUR exchange rate started the new week on a narrow trend.
Confidence in the British pound (GBP) exchange rates was somewhat shaken on Monday, meanwhile, as the CBI Business Optimism Index for April showed a slight dip from -4 to -5.
During the afternoon session, however, the euro to pound spot rate edged higher on news of the TTIP trade deal acceleration.
The next UK ecostats due out will be tomorrow, although these are not considered high-impact.
The most notable events are actually likely to come from the Eurozone, with a pair of ECB speeches from Vitor Constancio due in the morning and the evening.
The UK’s contribution will be the BBA mortgage approvals results for March.