Cameron: EU referendum is a 'once in a generation' decision - Politics live

• The BBC has announced that it will air three major debates in the run-up to the EU referendum, although it has not yet been revealed if prime minister David Cameron will appear in any of them.

• Junior doctors are to go on strike again on three dates, each taking place over 48 hours, the British Medical Association (BMA) said. As the Press Association reports, the doctors’ union also announced that it is to seek a judicial review into the government’s plans to impose new contracts. The dates planned for industrial action are from 8am on Wednesday March 9 to 8am on Friday March 11, from 8am on Wednesday April 6 to 8am on Friday April 8, and from 8am on Tuesday April 26 to 8am on Thursday April 28. The strike action will not affect emergency services.

• Tony Blair, the former prime minister, has spoken out against “populist” responses to the terror threat from both the far right and far left, which he said had delivered “solutions that make a tweet but not a policy”. In comments seemed directed at Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and at US Republican presidential contenders like Donald Trump, Blair lamented a “polarisation” of debate on both sides of the Atlantic which he said had undermined serious policy making. Speaking in Washington at the launch of a new Commission on Countering Violent Extremism which he will co-chair he said:

There are those on the left who want us to dis-engage, who believe that our policies are largely the cause of this extremism and that if we leave well alone, it will resolve itself. There are those on the right who believe Islam itself is the problem, thus in a strange way affirming the position of the extremists that the West and Islam are in immutable conflict with each other.

This polarisation of the debate is mirrored both sides of the Atlantic and the casualty is serious policy making. Both far left and far right come together in advocating solutions that make a tweet but not a policy.

We need a new approach - what I might term a more muscular centrist one - which in a sense is a synthesis of the lessons of the whole period since 9/11 and can unify our people behind it. We require a combination of military and security capability to counter the violence; together with a deep strategy to counter the ideology of extremism which breeds it.

• The GMB union has published research showing that workers in sectors such as leisure and caring have seen their pay fall by more than 15% in real terms since the recession. It said that pay has not recovered for many professions since 2008. Average earnings for all workers are 13.4% below pre-recession levels, it said.Ambulance staff have suffered a 19% fall in real time earnings, cleaners and sales assistants 18%, bar staff 15%, hospital porters 11%, refuse staff 10%, postal workers 9%, farm workers 8% and window cleaners 6%.

• Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan police commissioner, has told MPs he will not be “bullied” into apologising to Lord Bramall after the D-Day veteran was embroiled in Scotland Yard’s inquiry into VIP paedophile allegations. Hogan-Howe refused to say sorry to the 92-year-old, whose home was raided while he had breakfast with his terminally ill wife. Given evidence to the home affairs committee Hogan-Howe expressed “regret” over the episode but repeatedly refused to apologise. When the Tory Tim Loughton referred to the “media circus” surrounding the case, Hogan-Howe replied:

Ah the media circus. If what you mean is that you want me to be bullied into apologising then that won’t happen.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

The Office for National Statistics has published figures today on household disposable income and inequality. They confirm that since the financial crash there has been a slight decrease in overall income inequality, largely because the rich lost proportionately more of their income during the recession.

These are useful figures for David Cameron when he is challenged on inequality, although more recent developments are pushing inequality in the opposite direction.

This is from the ONS statistical bulletin (pdf).

The median disposable income of the richest fifth of households fell the most following the economic downturn (7.9% between 2007/08 and 2012/13). Since then it has increased, but in 2014/15 remained £2,000 (3.2%) below its previous peak after accounting for inflation and household composition. The poorest fifth of households were the only group whose average income did not fall between 2007/08 and 2012/13 and in 2014/15 the average income of this group was £700 (5.8%) above its 2007/08 value.

Estimates of income inequality for 2014/15 are broadly unchanged from those for the previous financial year (any differences are not statistically significant). Since 2007/08, there has been a slight decrease in overall income inequality on a range of measures, although from a longer-term perspective, income inequality remains above levels seen in the early 1980s.

And here is the key chart. Looking at income groups by quintile (poorest 20%, next poorest 20% etc), the light blue line shows changes in disposable income from 2007/08 to 2012/13, the dark blue line changes from 2012/13 to 2014/15 and the cross changes from 2007/08 to 2014/15.

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The Economist Intelligence Unit, which provides political and market analysis for business and others, has issued an updated assessment of the costs of Brexit.

It says that it expects Britain to vote to remain in the EU.

It has long been our view that voters’ fears about leaving the EU will rise as the referendum approaches and that the economic arguments in favour of staying in will prevail. We also believe that Mr Cameron’s support for staying in the EU will influence the voting intentions of a significant proportion of the electorate.

But, if Britain were to vote to leave the EU, “this would trigger economic and political turmoil albeit largely in the short term”, it says.

Uncertainty would lead to financial market volatility, affecting investment decisions and undermining growth.

The longer-term impact of Brexit would depend on the details of the exit agreement decided on by the UK and the EU. We would expect a Norway-style relationship with free trade in goods, but not services. Overall, the UK would remain an attractive business environment.

An important short-term political implication would be that David Cameron’s position as prime minister would become untenable, leading to his resignation.

Specifically, it says the value of the pound would fall sharply after Brexit.

We expect the currency to depreciate in the run-up to the referendum, but a Brexit result would prompt a sharp sell-off, driven by an assessment of the potential costs involved in leaving the EU. Investors would be concerned that a likely flight of capital and labour would impair the economy, undermining the UK’s “safe haven” status.

And it says that even in the longterm the effects on the economy would be negative.

The UK’s political capital is likely to be running low in a Brexit situation, and we would expect access to the services markets to be off-limits. This would damage the ability of the UK’s financial sector to provide services to EU markets, and companies that rely on this would probably relocate. We would also expect a sizeable drop off in foreign direct investment (FDI) from companies that view the UK as a gateway to Europe. This would involve a loss of typical spillover effects from FDI, such as new working practices and new technologies. It will also make it more difficult for the UK to finance its current-account deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, we would expect a further deterioration in the UK’s international investment position, raising the risks to financial stability.

In the longer term, the UK remains an attractive business environment. The short-term economic costs of a Brexit vote are likely to be significant, but we would expect economic growth to recover over the medium to long term, albeit to a level below our current baseline forecast for real GDP. Cities such as Frankfurt and Paris are keen to displace London as the financial centre of Europe, but London should retain its status as a strong international financial centre by virtue of language, time zone and an existing concentration of interconnected businesses. It may even gain a competitive edge through its ability to repeal some EU regulation. Structural features such as a flexible labour market and a broadly pro-business policy orientation would also help the UK to remain an attractive destination for inward investment. However, these features would be set against a wider and more persistent current-account deficit, and a loss of skilled labour from the EU, which would undermine the recovery in productivity.

Here’s the Guardian’s guide to how Tory MPs will vote in the EU referendum.

Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary and one of the six ministers attending cabinet who is voting for Brexit, was on the World at One earlier. She rejected claims that controls would have to be introduced at the Ireland/Northern Ireland border if Britain chose to leave the EU.

That’s not inevitable at all. We’ve always had a much closer relationship with the citizens of the Republic of Ireland than with the rest of the EU. It’s perfectly possible to maintain that free movement with Irish citizens. After all we give them privileges in the UK which we accord to no other EU citizens, like the right to vote in our elections ...

I don’t think anyone should assume that border checks should be introduced as a result of a UK exit. We are in the area of scare stories. We do need to recognise that the relationship between the UK and Ireland when it comes to this common travel area is decades older than our EU membership and doesn’t depend on it.

We’ve run an effective common travel area for many decades with the Republic of Ireland and there’s every reason to suggest that that would continue whether we leave the EU or we don’t. It’s manifestly in our interests to ensure that ease of passage across the border between North and South is as easy as possible. No-one is wanting to wind the clock back and to introduce the kind of security checks at the border that there were during the Troubles.

She also rejected the suggestion from Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuiness, Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister, that she should resign because she was campaigning for Brexit. When this was put to her she replied:

I think it’s perfectly reasonable for me to have chosen a side in this referendum. The great thing is that every single person in the UK, including in Northern Ireland, will get to take this decision, not just the secretary of state.

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• David Cameron has insisted Boris Johnson is still one of his great friends who has simply “got it wrong” on the issue of the EU referendum by declaring he wants the UK to leave. As Rowena Mason reports, the prime minister was pressed on their personal relationship after he launched ablistering attack on Monday on Johnson’s idea that a vote to leave the EU could lead to a further negotiation and second referendum. Speaking at the headquarters of O2 in Slough, Cameron said he “understands” Johnson’s decision but he was disappointed and strongly believes it was the wrong conclusion.

• The bosses of some of Britain’s top companies, including budget airline easyJet, defence contractor BAE Systems and oil group Shell, have signed a letter in support of the UK remaining inside the European Union. The letter is signed by the chair or chief executive of about a third of the businesses on the FTSE 100 index of Britain’s largest stockmarket-listed companies.

• Boris Johnson has dismissed claims about the danger of Brexit as alarmist. Speaking to journalists this morning, he said:

Of course there will be people who try to spread alarm, anxiety. We had much the same sort of thing when the decision came whether or not to join the euro, and indeed 20 years ago whether or not to leave the ERM. And on both occasions all those same people were wrong.

We’ve got a great opportunity now to strike new deals, for Britain to be the hub of new trading arrangements around the world and to have a fantastic new future. So that’s what I’m going for.

He also played down a warning from William Hague, the former foreign secretary, that a divisive EU referendum contest could damage the Conservative party for a generation. He said the party had a “much better team spirit” than in the 1990s. (See 11.53am.)

• Maria Eagle, the shadow culture secretary, as accused an “ideologically driven” government of trying to bully the BBC in the Labour’s fiercest attack on the issue of public service broadcasting since the election.

• John Swinney, Scotland’s finance minister, has told a parliamentary committee that a“fundamental disagreement” remains between Holyrood and Westminster on Scottish government funding.

• Sir Michael Wilshaw, the head of Ofsted, has urged Nicky Morgan, the education secretary, not to recruit his successor from abroad. As the Press Association reports, recent reports have indicated that Morgan is considering candidates from the US, Canada and northern Europe to replace Sir Michael Wilshaw when he stands down from Ofsted in December. Asked if Morgan should pick a “home-grown” successor, Wilshaw told the BBC:

I would but then that’s not up to me.

At the end of the day this is up to the secretary of state and the Department for Education. All I can say is we have very little to learn from America. They don’t do as well as we do in the Pisa tables, the OECD tables. We’ve got a lot of talent in this country that I’m sure could do a good job as Ofsted’s chief inspector.

• CND has announced that Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, will address an anti-Trident demonstration in London on Saturday. Tens of thousands of people are expected to attend.

• Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, has announced that Crossrail will be named the Elizabeth line in honour of the Queen when it opens in 2018.

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Liz Truss, the environment secretary, has told the National Farmers’ Union conference that leaving the EU would be bad for the industry. She told them:

At a time of severe price volatility and global market uncertainty, I believe it would be wrong to take a leap into the dark. The years of complication and risk caused by negotiating withdrawal would be a distraction from our efforts to build a world-leading food and farming industry that brings jobs and growth to Britain.

Here’s the full story.

Number 10 has released the text of a letter (pdf) Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, has sent to permanent secretaries today clarifying what civil servants can do in relation to the EU referendum.

It confirms that ministers who want to argue for Brexit will not get civil service support. Here’s an extract.

It will not be appropriate or permissible for the civil service to support ministers who oppose the government’s official position by providing briefing or speech material on this matter. This includes access to official departmental papers, excepting papers that ministers have previously seen on issues relating to the referendum question prior to the suspension of collective agreement. These rules will apply also to their special advisers.

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You can tell when there’s an election on because journalists have to get on a train and head out of London. This morning David Cameron took them to Slough. The Q&A may have looked like a relatively routine PM Direct event - Cameron strutting a makeshift stage, jacket off, with workers listening with just a modicum of interest/respect - but this was the start of what Number 10 says will be a campaign roadshow, as the prime minister takes to the country to make the case of Britain remaining in Europe.

In any campaign the stump speech is important. You might not think so, because journalists almost never report them. The stump speech is the one a politician repeats over and over and over again, at different locations, setting out his or her key campaign message. They rarely make the news because they are not new, and reporters end up getting so bored by them that they treat them with disdain, but they encapsulate the two or three arguments that leaders hope will eventually permeate into the minds of people with only limited interest in what political figures do and say (ie, most people).

Today Cameron set out his “stump speech”. (See from 11.56am to 12.05pm.) It is about how Britain would be stronger, safer and better off remaining in the EU. It is not the most sophisticated or uplifting campaign message, but it is coherent and not obviously untrue.

Crucially, the In camp have a stump speech. The Out camp don’t. There are plenty of intelligent and articulate fight on the Leave side, but there is no consensus as to how best they should fight the campaign and some of their messages are contradictory.

Cameron also looked like someone who was enjoying himself, and who was confident in what he had to say. That helps.

As for what he said, regular readers will be familiar with the arguments in the stump speech because Cameron has been fine-tuning them for the last four days. (Today was not the first time he had made the “stronger, safer, better off” case; just the first time he tested it on an audience of ordinary voters). But there were some more novel lines in the Q&A. Here they are.

• Cameron said Boris Johnson had a “very strong future” in British politics and a lot to give to the country. He also said he hoped the debate about the EU would be “reasonable” and “civilised”. His comment about Johnson sounded like an attempt to patch up relations after his hatchet job on the London mayor in the Commons yesterday and Cameron seemed to be hinting that Johnson’s decision to back Brexit would not stop him being offered a cabinet job later this year. Cameron said:

I have huge respect for Boris as a politician. He is a great friend of mine, he is a fantastic Mayor of London, I think he has a lot to give to the Conservative party, I think he has a lot to give to this country.

But on this issue I think he has got it wrong.

We are going to have, I hope, a very reasonable, civilised argument between us and between other parties and you are going to find people with some fairly strange bedfellows. This is one where Jeremy Corbyn and I agree.

• Cameron said that anyone unsure of how to vote in the referendum should back the status quo because staying in the EU guaranteed safety and security.

We all feel quite conflicted. In all of us there is a questioning about ‘what’s the right answer for Britain’.

I would say for anyone who is finding it hard to make up your mind, and you feel it is a very balanced decision, I would say come down on the side of security and safety and certainty.

• He said that, although only a third of FTSE 100 leaders had signed today’s letter saying Britain should stay in the EU, the Leave campaign would be delighted to have this support.

If the leave campaign could produce 35 business leaders of this sort of stature they’d be over the moon and I don’t think they have the prospect of doing that with FTSE 100 leaders in any way.

• Cameron said being prime minister for the last six years had given him a better appreciation of how the EU contributes to Britain’s security. As the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn points out, some, but not all, Tory ministers have gone through a similar mental transition.

• Cameron claimed that Britain could have to wait for up to two years after voting to leave the EU before it could start negotiating trade deals with other countries. This delay could be damaging to business, he said.

• He said the Treasury and the Bank of England would publish reports on the economic implications of Brexit.

• He said the EU referendum was a “once in a generation” decision. It was more important than a general election, he said.

I would argue this is a much bigger decision because at election times you can vote in a team of people and if you’ve got fed up with them after five years you can vote them out.

This is a decision that lasts for life. We make this decision and it is probably going to be the only time in our generation when we make this decision.

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This is what happened when David Cameron opened the event saying it was great to be in Slough.

Cameron, of course, when to school not far from Slough, although that is not the town normally associated with his alma mater; it’s closer to Windsor.

Cameron says the idea that business is divided into firms that export and firms that don’t is out of date, he says.

He says many firms are dependent on supplying firms that do export.

He says in theory leaving the EU could result in firms that do not export not be required to comply with EU rules.

But he says this would not suit firms looking to expand.

And that’s it. The Q&A is over.

I’ll post a summary soon.

Cameron says in other countries the telecoms industry is still dominated by big, national-owned companies. It is important for Britain to be in the EU to help push through rules that encourage more competition, he says.

Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is offering a running commentary on Cameron’s performance on Twitter.

Q: How did you find out Boris Johnson would back Brexit? Were you irritated?

Cameron says he has had many conversations with Johnson about this over the last few weeks. They have exchanged text messages too. He says he was disappointed. But if you are not certain, you should back the side that offers the safety and security of what we know.

Even if you think the future outside the EU would be better (which he doesn’t think, he says), the transition period would be difficult.

There is a real danger of job losses, he says.

And he says if Britain is not in the single market, there is a danger of the single market countries ganging up against you.

Recently the EU tried to introduce a law saying banks doing complex deals in euros had to be in the Eurozone. Britain blocked that, he says. And the new deal offers protections against that.

But if Britain were outside the EU, it could not stop that.

• Cameron says anyone unsure of how to vote should vote to stay in the EU, because the status quo guarantees safety and security.

• He says EU countries would discriminate against Britain if Britain left.

Cameron says companies have to get statement like this approved by their boards.

• Cameron says Leave campaign would be “over the moon” if it could get 35 FTSE 100 leaders to back Brexit.