Previous ‘Brexit’ Fears Clearly still Damaging the Pound Sterling’s Chances Today despite PM’s Speech
Good UK GDP figures have enabled GBP to trend well against NOK, SEK and DKK, showing a consistent level of economic expansion in the final quarter of 2015.
A drop in Swedish business confidence and producer prices has helped GBP extend a bullish lead on SEK.
Brexit predictions from HSBC have weakened GBP-SEK and GBP-DKK today, although NOK is still much weaker after the drop in oil prices.
HSBC expect an exit for the UK out of the EU will see the Pound fall by up to -15% against the US Dollar and knock -1.5% off GDP.
Saudi Arabia have ruled out the possibility of an oil production cut, weakening NOK, while GBP is still trending negatively vs SEK and DKK.
Brexit fears continue to weaken the Pound, as Tory peers fight over whether David Cameron’s EU reforms could be overruled by the European Court of Justice (ECJ).
Find the latest GBP FX rates below
On Saturday the Norwegian Krone to British Pound exchange rate (NOK/GBP) converts at 0.073
At time of writing the pound to norwegian krone exchange rate is quoted at 13.627.
At time of writing the pound to swedish krona exchange rate is quoted at 13.499.
The GBP to DKK exchange rate converts at 8.66 today.
NB: the forex rates mentioned above, revised as of 20th Apr 2024, are inter-bank prices that will require a margin from your bank. Foreign exchange brokers can save up to 5% on international payments in comparison to the banks.
As Mark Carney’s comments continue to weaken GBP vs the NOK, SEK and the DKK, the Economic Intelligence Unit has become the latest body to issue a dovish prediction for Pound Sterling exchange rates.
According to the Unit, the EU referendum will keep Pound Sterling weak, but a ‘Brexit’ vote would trigger a mass Sterling sell off.
Supporters of the Pound Sterling have been given little respite so far today, as while yesterday saw the UK currency crippled by Boris Johnson joining the ‘Out’ campaign, today has brought further misery from the Bank of England (BoE).
While testifying policymakers including Governor Mark Carney have deliberately avoided fuelling ‘Brexit’ speculation and concerns, the central bankers have still weakened the Pound by entertaining the idea of cutting UK interest rates to 0% to stimulate the economy.
Although it seemed yesterday as though the PM might be able to counteract Johnson’s effect with a fiery Commons speech, the PM’s attacks were largely blunted and the Pound fell to a 9-year low against the US Dollar regardless.
UK Homes and Sales Stats due Tomorrow, Current Forecasts Unsupportive Overall
The near future will see the announcement of a pair of UK economic releases, which will be the January BBA loans for house purchases and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported sales in February, both of which are due tomorrow morning.
Current predictions are for a rise from 43975 to 44800 for the loans outcome, but a drop from 16 points to 12 for the reported sales figure.
Thursday will see the Pound shifted by a likely greater amount, when the morning brings the Q4 GDP results. For the main base annual figure, current forecasts are a reprint of 1.9%.
Norwegian Krone Advances against Sterling (GBP/NOK) despite Volatile Global Oil Prices
Against the Pound, the Norwegian Krone has risen to a weekly high today of 0.0825, although this is likely only on account of the Pound being so severely softened at the present time.
Elsewhere, the Krone has been generally destabilised by a severe shortage of domestic data and the sporadically moving price of Brent crude, although at the time of writing the commodity had hit a weekly high of $34.99.
The next piece of Norwegian data to watch out for will be tomorrow’s unemployment rate for December; at the time of writing, the rate was expected to show a rise from 4.6% to 4.7%.
Swedish Krona (SEK) Records Gains against Sterling Today ahead of Impending Confidence Stats
The Swedish Krona has secured a rise up to 0.0835 against the Pound today, despite not being graced with concrete ecostats.
As with the Bank of England (BoE), the heads of the Swedish central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, have been testifying to their respective parliaments recently.
In the case of Deputy Governor Martin Floden, the policymaker has advised caution by stating:
’We are approaching the limit at which the impact of monetary policy starts to weaken. I therefore think that it is better to wait before cutting the rate further.’
Friday will see the release of the nation’s business and consumer confidence results for February, along with the January balance of trade figure and the household lending growth on the year for the same month. In all fields except household lending, forecasts are pessimistic.
Danish Krone Rises against Sterling (GBP/DKK) on Bouncing Sales Stats
Unlike its fellow Northern European neighbouring currencies, the Danish Krone has already received domestic data this week, although this is at the cost of not having any further announcements until Friday.
The announcement in question covered the nation’s retail sales figures for January; on both the month and the year the numbers rose, from -0.8% to 0.5% and from -0.1% to 0.3% respectively.
The next Danish ecostat isn’t due until Friday, when the country’s business confidence score for February will be revealed. Current forecasts are for a fractional ‘improvement’ from -4 points to -3.