New Zealand's chance to close out series

Match facts

Sunday, January 25, 2015
Start time 1100 local (2200 GMT)

Play 00:54

Big Picture

If it is true that you learn more in defeat than in victory, Sri Lanka must have now earned a doctorate in how not to win matches, in their time in New Zealand. The fielders have majored in shelling important catches. The bowlers have refined the science of making top-order breakthroughs, then allowing the lower-middle order to blow them away. And the batsmen have become adept at tumbling in a heap after Tillakaratne Dilshan, Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara have played good innings.

There was real hope that Sri Lanka's long-term middle-order malaise had been cured ahead of this World Cup, but so far in the series, the batting there has been as queasy as ever. None of Jeevan Mendis, Thisara Perera and Lahiru Thirimanne have had the stomach for a real fight. Angelo Mathews' dip in productivity has made their failures starker.

Sri Lanka's opening woes seem a trifle in comparison to the muddle in the middle, but when Thirimanne went up the order on Friday, he became Dilshan's sixth opening partner since mid-October. Thirimanne at least seems more suited to the role than several of his predecessors, having played genuinely match-winning innings from the top order in the past. But his promotion spawns a spate of new questions further down the order - the most obvious being: what to do with Dimuth Karunaratne, who is in the World Cup squad?

New Zealand are floating away from the opposition after a pair of spunky victories, with Luke Ronchi and Grant Elliott now in spiffing form, in addition to Kane Williamson and Brendon McCullum. Ross Taylor is visibly short of runs and confidence, but with a 3-1 lead with two matches to go, New Zealand can afford to give him time to get right. Their conveyor belt of excellent bowlers is shining up nicely too, and the fielding is so quick, agile and relentlessly immaculate, this team is surely on the verge of breaking through to a new era in human evolution.

Form guide

New Zealand: WWLWW (last five matches, most recent first)

Sri Lanka:LLWLW

In the spotlight

Martin Guptill bristled at suggestions he was struggling for form, pointing to his Ford Trophy performances and the ODI half-century in Auckland. But after a golden duck on Friday, he needs good scores in the last two matches to emerge from this series with credit. He has seemed in good nick at times, even stroking a beautiful lofted off-drive that carried for six in Nelson, but has only passed 30 once in the series so far. His place is under little pressure, particularly as New Zealand are winning, but he will know he has not contributed much.

Nuwan Kulasekara has been better in this series than he was in the latter half of 2014, but now tasked with leading the attack, he is being somewhat exposed towards the end of the innings. Kulasekara threatens with his new-ball inswing, but as Sri Lanka rely on him to rein in the scoring rate towards the close, he will want to hit the yorker length more often too.

Teams news

Adam Milne remains unavailable due to a side strain, but the remainder of New Zealand's squad is fit. Only one of Daniel Vettori and Nathan McCullum is likely to play, and team management may consider resting Mitchell McClenaghan, given his workload in the series.

New Zealand: (probable) 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Brendon McCullum (capt), 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Grant Elliott, 6 Luke Ronchi (wk) , 7 Corey Anderson, 8 Nathan McCullum/Daniel Vettori, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Mitchell McClenaghan/Kyle Mills, 11 Trent Boult

Angelo Mathews' calf strain is not yet fully healed, which means Lahiru Thirimanne will likely lead the team again as well as open the batting. Sri Lanka are short a batsman in the squad, so Karunaratne may have to bat out of position at no. 5 or 6. The visitors may also play Dhammika Prasad in place of Suranga Lakmal, who conceded 93 runs from his 10 overs. Rangana Herath may also play in place of Sachithra Senanayake, who has gone wicketless in the last two games.

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Lahiru Thirimanne, 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt)/Dimuth Karunaratne, 6 Dinesh Chandimal, 7 Thisara Perara, 8 Jeevan Mendis, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Sachithra Senanayake/Rangana Herath, 11 Dhammika Prasad

Pitch and conditions

The same strip that hosted Friday's runfest is being used again on Sunday. Expect the toss-winner to bat first. The weather is expected to be sunny for the game's duration.

Stats and trivia

• Trent Boult's 4 for 44 on Friday was his best figures in 13 ODIs so far

• Tillakaratne Dilshan and Mahela Jayawardene are the two top run-scorers in the series, with 295 and 255 runs respectively. The next five batsmen on the list are from the opposition.

• Sunday's match is the fourth ODI to be played at the University Oval. Both these teams also play there during the World Cup.

Quotes

"If you look at the batting group, everyone has got a score. Ross is probably the only one who hasn't, but we know what a quality batsman he is and when he comes good he wins you games. He's been working hard and is not far off."
New Zealand batting coach Craig McMillan

"We took Angelo for an MRI scan, and it didn't show any major damage. It's just a bit tight and very sore at the moment."
Sri Lanka team manager Michael de Zoysa