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The grand final of the 2014 Super Rugby competition will take place between the competition leading Waratahs and the in form Crusaders at Allianz Stadium.
Simply, this is the final that had to happen. If you take season-long form as a guide then the Waratahs will take their first championship; if you take recent form into account, keen minds will take the Crusaders to win their eighth.
The Waratahs, however, should go into the grand final as favourites for two reasons. First, home ground advantage – while ANZ Stadium it is not the Tahs traditional home, it is still Australian soil and will be willed with 60,000+ who will don the sky blue.
Second, because the NSW-based franchise has a formidable for and against record (+227), the highest in the competition – the Crusaders are second with +155. This simple measurement is representative of two facets of the game, defence and offence, and the Tahs have dominated both in 2014.
The side has missed the fewest tackles per game (14.1) and made the second lowest in the competition, indicative of a side that knows how to keep the ball in hand for extended phases. They also lead the competition in tries scored (58), clean breaks (164), metres run (8824) and offloads (244).
Finals rugby however, is different. The Waratah’s will go into the match with a young side that has very limited finals experience facing the most successful club in Super Rugby history. Not only that, the Cantabrians boast some of the greatest players to grace a rugby field in Ritchie McCaw and Dan Carter.
While the Crusaders may not have filled up the stats sheet as impressively as the Waratahs, if there is one thing that the side knows, it is winning.
Key matchups
Flanker (Hooper vs McCaw)
The old verse the new. Undeniably both men are phenomenal players and will lead the charge at the breakdown for their respective teams.
While McCaw has played limited rugby in 2014 he has showed that he does not need excessive minutes to get back into world class form. Hooper, on the other hand, has demonstrated why many consider him the best openside pilferer in the world at present.
Their real influence in this game, however, could come in terms of leadership. While Hooper has international captaincy experience there is little denying that the most winningest captain of all time will can affect the refereeing of the game, even if Kieran Read is captain on the team sheet.
How the energetic style of Hooper will cope with the guile of McCaw (and vise verse), we will have to wait and see.
Number Eight (Read vs Palu)
One of the most dynamic positions on the field will see both Wallabies and All Blacks number eight’s pack down against each other.
Kieran Read has been in blistering form in the past two seasons, seeing him win IRB Player of the Year in 2013 and emerge as New Zealand’s most dominant forward in the process. Palu has managed to string a full season together and looks to be back to the form that saw him become a Wallabies incumbent.
With both sides possessing formidable defence it will be critical for both Read and Palu to spark the forward drive and link forwards and backs. Whomever does this better could well come out with a championship under their belt.
Inside centre (Carter vs Beale)
Usually it is the flyhalf postition that generates the most attention coming into game time but not this year. Starting two play-makers is a known as a traditionally New Zealand approach to backline configuration but the Waratahs have adopted the approach and implemented it very successfully.
The Crusaders will look to exploit Beale’s slight weakness in defence but Carter will also be targeted by the Waratahs hulking forward pack. Expect a lot of traffic to charge down their respective channels on attack and defence.
Structure vs flare
While the Waratahs dominated most statistics in 2014, they are superseded by the Crusaders at the set piece.
The Crusaders won 88.6 per cent of their own lineout this year whereas the Tah’s managed only 82.5 per cent – lock Sam Whitelock also sits at third in the competition for lineout steals. At scrum time the ‘Saders ranked fourth overall in efficiency with 88.5 per cent whereas their opponents averaged only 76 per cent.
These statistics may well be the most telling come game time.
The Crusaders will be well aware of the attacking potency of the Waratahs forwards and backs, and will consequently look to inhibit the amount of time that they have will ball in hand. What this could mean for the Crusaders game plan is kicking, restarts and penalties in their ‘red zone’, similar to the All Blacks.
Conversely, the Waratahs will look to do what they do best and that is score tries. The side has scored 13 of their 58 tries from turnovers, and if the Crusaders commit similar errors the game may be out of their grasp. Remove those 13 tries from the equation (as hypothetical as that may be) and statistically, both attacks becomes very even.
Final wrap up
Where the Crusaders may have an edge is in the forwards and the experience of their pack. On paper, the Crusaders are built for big game situations – and have the cunning, guile and knowledge to win close games.
The Waratahs however, have showed that they are the best side in the competition and will deservedly go into the match as favourites.
The sides however, have not played in 2014 and only one Waratah’s player in the current squad has experienced a Waratahs victory over the Crusaders – Stephen Hoiles back in 2004.
Whatever the outcome, it looks to be a grand final for the ages – and a new chapter in the rivalry not just between the Waratahs and Crusaders but New Zealand and Australia.
Game on.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.