NBA Eastern Conference playoffs are no longer a two-team race
That story of the two-team race between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers to the Eastern Conference finals is now an obsolete plot.
The Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets forced their way into the story, and what was seemed assured — Heat vs. Pacers for a spot in the NBA Finals — is no longer an automatic lock.
"It shouldn't surprise anyone to see an upset in the Eastern Conference," TNT and YES Network analyst Mike Fratello said.
The Heat and Pacers are still the favorites — the body of work from late October to mid-April counts — but the playoff matchups became more interesting as teams in the East developed, found their way and prospered.
"Early in the season, when we saw the Eastern Conference, everybody was ready to write the Eastern Conference off, especially the young teams," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "They didn't see the ceilings and the room for improvement."
Early on, the East was bad. On New Year's morning, the Pacers were 25-5 and the Heat 24-7, and, along with the Atlanta Hawks, they were the only East teams with winning records. The Wizards were 14-14, the Raptors 14-15, the Charlotte Bobcats 14-18, the Bulls 12-18 and the Nets 10-21. Brooklyn was closer to the Milwaukee Bucks at the bottom of the standings than it was to the Pacers or Heat at the top.
But after Jan. 1 in the East, the Bulls had the highest winning percentage, followed by the Nets, Raptors, Pacers and Heat. Miami's 30-21 record in that period was just better than Charlotte's 29-21.
"You have to give it time," Spoelstra said. "Young teams, they get better as the season goes on. — While we were concentrating on us, we had great respect for these teams in the Eastern Conference."
To put it in perspective, teams such as the Nets, Raptors, Bobcats and Bulls have been better for a longer stretch than they were bad this season.
Looking back, there were reasons some of the East's playoff teams started slowly and recovered:
>> The Bobcats were adapting to a new culture established by first-year coach Steve Clifford and working new center Al Jefferson into the lineup.
>> The Bulls were shaken — again — by the loss of point guard Derrick Rose to another knee injury early in the season and were stunned by the front office trading Luol Deng. But who's surprised that coach Tom Thibodeau and center Joakim Noah led a resurgence?
>> The Nets needed to adjust to new players (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce) and a new coach (Jason Kidd) and had to deal with the expectations of a $100 million roster, plus a strained relationship between Kidd and then top-assistant Lawrence Frank. Kidd remained patient and found a more deliberate pace using a smaller lineup.
>> The Raptors had too many perimeters players who could score, and once they traded Rudy Gay, they found an offensive flow. Point guard Kyle Lowry helped that, too.
>> The Wizards were learning and growing with a young backcourt (John Wall, Bradley Beal) while dealing with injuries. The return of Trevor Booker and Nene and the addition of Marcin Gortat in the frontcourt helped, and the contribution of Trevor Ariza can't be overlooked.
Miami's opponent in the first round (Charlotte) and potential opponent in the second round (Toronto) haven't beaten the Heat since LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade in 2010-11. They are 0-29 against Miami.
If Brooklyn and Miami meet in the second round, it gets a little more interesting. The Nets were 4-0 against Miami this season, including three games decided by one point. It took two overtimes to decide the other game. Brooklyn has the guards, wings and frontcourt depth to challenge Miami, and James vs. Paul Pierce is always interesting. But beating Miami four times in the regular season is not the same as beating them four times in a best-of-seven series.
Before that, Brooklyn and Toronto need to figure it out in the first round. They split four games this season. No one is counting on the Pacers to lose to the Hawks. Chicago should get past Washington, and if that happens, a series between the Bulls and Pacers, the NBA's two best defensive teams, should be a competitive slugfest if not a little difficult on the eyes.
Again, none of this has changed the expectations of Miami and Indiana meeting in the conference finals. It just adds more intrigue and the greater possibility of an upset than had been expected four months ago.